Strategic Management Essay

251 words - 2 pages

Managerial Staistics
Saturday 10:00 -12:00
Optimization Unlimited


A. Probabilities of a truckload
Formula: P(E) = f/n

1 Dry Method
Total Truckloads 184
Bluberries in traditional dry method 125

Probability 125/184 0.679347826


2 Wet Method
Total Truckloads 184
Bluberries in traditional dry method 59

...view middle of the document...

744565217

4 Classified as No. 2
Total Truckloads 184
Blueberies harvested in dry method 47

Probability 47/184 0.255434783

"B.
" Conditional Probability

W D Total
1 20 27 47
2 39 98 137
59 125 184

1 Analogous probability
20/59 0.338983051
Probability that given a wet harvested truckload ,it will be classified as No.2
39/59 0.661016949



1 2 Total
W 20 39 59
D 27 98 125
47 137 184


2 Probability that a load is harvested using dry method if it is classified as No. 1

=27/47= 0.574468085
Probability that a load is harvested using wet method if it is classified as No. 1
=20/47= 0.425531915


3 Bernoulli Process
P[k] = nCk*p^k*q^(n-k)
No. of Trials 10
Probability of success 137/184 0.744565217
Probability of failure 1-0.073 0.255

Probability of 8 of 10 truckloads being classified as No. 2 P(8) = 10C8*0.745^8*0.255^2 0.035

Probability Actual Difference
>20,000 0.074 0.071 0.003

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