Risk Management Essay

6816 words - 28 pages

APPENDIX P:
Project Costs and Schedule Risk Analysis
Report

LCA CONVEY ATCHAFALAYA RIVER WATER TO
NORTHERN TERREBONNE MARSHES AND
MULTIPURPOSE OPERATION OF THE HOUMA
NAVIGATION LOCK
FEASIBILITY STUDY
FOR
ST. LOUIS DISTRICT, ST. LOUIS, MO

Prepared for:
St. Louis District, St. Louis, MO __
Prepared by:
Paige Scott __________________

Date: __03 May 2010 ________

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 1
1. PURPOSE ................................................................................................................. 3
2. ...view middle of the document...

................................ 9
Cost Risk Analysis - Cost Contingency Results ............................................... 11
Schedule Risk Analysis - Schedule Contingency Results ................................ 13
Combined Cost and Schedule Contingency Results........................................ 15

7. MAJOR FINDINGS/OBSERVATIONS .................................................................... 16
8. MITIGATION RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................... 17
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Work Breakdown Structure by Feature ............................................................ 6
Table 2. Studied Risk Register ....................................................................................... 8
Table 3. Cost Confidence Table .................................................................................... 10
Table 4. Schedule Confidence Table ............................................................................ 13
Table 5. Combined Confidence Table ........................................................................... 14
Table 6. Project Contingencies (Base Cost Plus Cost and Schedule Contingencies) .. 15
FIGURE
Figure 1. Cost Sensitivity Chart ..................................................................................... 10
Figure 2. Cost Confidence Curve .................................................................................. 11
Figure 3. Schedule Sensitivity Chart ............................................................................. 12
Figure 4. Schedule Confidence Curve........................................................................... 13
Figure 5. Project Confidence Curve ............................................................................. 15

i

APPENDIX
APPENDIX A

Detailed Risk Register

ii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report discusses the cost and schedule risk analysis (CSRA) process and results
for the Convey Atchafalaya River Water to Northern Terrebonne Marshes (ARTM)
Feasibility Study. The ARTM project is located in the vicinity of Houma. A CSRA was
performed to study project elements that could have an impact on the project cost and
schedule. The CSRA measures that impact with a contingency calculation outcome
based on an eighty (80) percent confidence level for both cost and schedule that are
measured in terms of dollars and months, respectively.
The ARTM Study Area is comprised of over 500 square miles of southern Louisiana in
the vicinity of Houma. The western limit of the study area is the Atchafalaya River at
Morgan City in St. Mary Parish. The eastern limit of the ARTM study area is bordered
by Bayou LaFourche in LaFourche Parish. A large extent of the study area lies in
Terrebonne Parish adjacent to and south of State Highways 182 and 24.
The ARTM project is one of the Louisiana Costal Authority (LCA) projects, and is
authorized by Title VII of the WRDA of 2007....

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