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October 1 Ism Essay

1130 words - 5 pages

Current Economic Outlook
Positive signs, but beware!

Manufacturing is expanding at its fastest past in 2 ½ years, but will that translate into economic growth and new jobs? The unemployment rate is at its lowest since December 2008. Good news? Not really, the details to the latest payroll report are not pretty.
Current Economic Outlook
Positive signs, but beware!

Manufacturing is expanding at its fastest past in 2 ½ years, but will that translate into economic growth and new jobs? The unemployment rate is at its lowest since December 2008. Good news? Not really, the details to the latest payroll report are not pretty.

October 1 ISM Manufacturing Index

What the ISM indicates
...view middle of the document...

6 | 52.3 | +0.3 | Slowing | Faster | 3 |
Inventories | 50.0 | 47.5 | +2.5 | Unchanged | From Contracting | 1 |
Customers' Inventories | 43.0 | 42.5 | +0.5 | Too Low | Slower | 22 |
Prices | 56.5 | 54.0 | +2.5 | Increasing | Faster | 2 |
Backlog of Orders | 49.5 | 46.5 | +3.0 | Contracting | Slower | 5 |
Exports | 52.0 | 55.5 | -3.5 | Growing | Slower | 10 |
Imports | 55.0 | 58.0 | -3.0 | Growing | Slower | 8 |
  |   |   |   |   |   |   |
OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Faster | 52 |
Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Faster | 4 |

Key Notes from Table
* The New Orders Index was down 2.7%, but still quite strong at 60.5%
* Note that August was the first 60%+ reading in over 2 years.
* The Production Index increased by 0.2% to 62.6%
* The Employment Index was at 55.4%, up of 2.1%
* 15-month high
* Indicates more demand in manufacturing, and that employees may actually be hired
* According to Amna Asaf from Capital Economics, an employment index so high typically translates into an increase of about 20,000 new manufacturing jobs on the monthly payrolls report.
* The Price Index increased 2.5% to 56.5%
* Represents business sentiment regarding future inflation
* A high reading is seen as positive for the US Dollar.

Market Reactions
The S&P 500 rose 14 points or .841%. The yield on 10 year treasury bonds increased from 2.64% to 2.66% for a .02 percent increase. I thought that stocks would increase more since stocks likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. I also thought that the bond yield would decrease since the bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflation.

Be weary of the Government Shutdown.
Though the ISM appears strong, it will probably be tempered by the government shutdown. This is the first shut down since the Clinton presidency when non-essential federal services were suspended for a total of 28 days. It is estimated that the shutdown at that time dragged real GDP growth by about 25 basis points, about 1 basis point per day. Economic data itself is already a casualty of government gridlock as the data for September will not happen.

September 6 Payroll & Unemployment

What is it?
The Non-Farm payroll is a key economic indicator for the U.S. It measures the change in the number of people employed the...

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