Efficient Market Theory:
An investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and that the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.
* Market price is an unbiased estimate of the true value of the ...view middle of the document...
* We should distance ourselves from the presumption that financial markets always work well and that price changes always reflect genuine information. Evidence from behavioral finance helps us to understand, for example, that the recent worldwide stock market boom, and then crash after 2000, had its origins in human foibles and arbitrary feedback relations and must have generated a real and substantial misallocation of resources.
* All information about the exchange rate trend of the past are contained in the actual market price. Only past-oriented data is important
* The current price reflects the information contained in all past prices
* Using past prices alone would not be useful in finding under-valued stocks
* Rate changes of the past as well as all known and available information are reflected in the market price.
* E.g. information provided by media, private information services, investment advisors, annual balance sheets, annual reports, etc.
* It is not possible to gain over-average returns systematically by using a fundamental share analysis
* Current prices fully reflect all publicy available information including annual reports , news items, etc.
* The rate of the shares includes all relevant information
* People with monopolistic access to information, e.g. investment...