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Investments Essay

1956 words - 8 pages

PGA

El Contexto de las Inversiones
Preguntas a responder: ¿Por qué invierten las personas? ¿Qué es una inversión? ¿Cómo medimos la tasa de retorno de una inversión? ¿Cómo miden los inversionistas el riesgo relacionado de inversiones alternativas?

El contexto de las inversiones
Tema 1

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El Contexto de las Inversiones
¿Qué factores contribuyen a las tasas de retorno que el inversionista requiere en diferentes instrumentos? ¿ factores macroeconómicos y ¿Qué microeconómicos contribuyen a cambiar la tasa de retorno requerida en materia de inversión?

¿Por qué invierten los individuos?
Al ahorrar (en lugar de gastar), los individuos sacrifican un consumo presente a ...view middle of the document...

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Definiendo una Inversión
Es un compromiso actual en $ por un periodo de tiempo determinado a fin de obtener ingresos futuros que compensen por:  El plazo que los fondos son comprometidos  La tasa de inflación esperada  Incertidumbre de los flujos de efectivo futuros.

Medición Histórica de Tasas de Rendimiento
Retorno durante el Período de Tenencia

HPR 

Valor Final de la Inversión Valor Inicial de la Inversión $220   1 . 10 $200

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Medición Histórica de Tasas de Rendimiento
Rendimiento durante el Período de Tenencia

Medición Histórica de Tasas de Rendimiento
Retorno Annual durante el Período de Tenencia

 HPR Anual = HPR 1/n
En donde E d d n = número d períodos d la i ú de í d de l inversión ió

HPY = HPR - 1 1.10 - 1 = 0.10 = 10%
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Rendimiento Annual durante el Período de Tenencia  HPY Anual = HPR Anual - 1
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D.R. Universidad Virtual del Tecnológico de Monterrey, 2010

2

Medición de Tasas de Rendimiento Históricas
Media Aritmética

Medición de Tasas de Rendimiento Históricas
Media Geométrica
MG   HPR en donde :

MA   HPY/n en donde :

1 n  1

 HPY  la suma de los rendimientos periódicos
de tenencia
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  multiplica torio de los HPR´s periódicos como sigue :

HPR 1  HPR 2  HPR n 
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Un Portafolio de Inversiones
El promedio histórico de los rendimientos para un portafolio de inversiones es medido como el promedio ponderado de los HPYs individuales que integran el portafolio.

Cálculo del HPY para un Portafolio
# Precio EmpresaAcciones Inicial A 100,000 $ 10 B 200,000 $ 20 C 500,000 500 000 $ 30 Total HPR = Valor Mdo Precio Valor Mdo % Inicial Final Final HPR HPY Mdo $ 1,000,000 $ 12 $ 1,200,000 1.20 20% 0.05 $ 4,000,000 $ 21 $ 4,200,000 1.05 5% 0.20 $ 15 000 000 15,000,000 $ 33 $ 16 500 000 1 10 10% 0 75 16,500,000 1.10 0.75 $ 20,000,000 $ 21,900,000 $ 21,900,000 $ 20,000,000 -1 = 1.095 HPY Pond 0.010 0.010 0.075 0 075 0.095

HPY =

1.095

= =

0.095 9.5%

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Tasas de Rendimiento Esperadas
El Riesgo representa la volatilidad de las tasas de rendimiento esperadas de una inversión i ió Probabilidad es el grado de verosimilitud de un resultado
n

Tasas de Rendimiento Esperadas
Rendimient o Esperado  E(R i )

 (Probabilidad del Rendimiento)  (Rendimiento)
i 1

[(P1 )(R 1 )  (P2 )(R 2 )  ....  (Pn R n )


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n

i1

( P i )(R

i

)

D.R. Universidad Virtual del Tecnológico de Monterrey, 2010

3

Aversión al Riesgo
Es el supuesto de que la mayoría de los inversionistas van a escoger una alternativa menos riesgosa, manteniendo q todo lo demás siendo constante, y que no aceptarán un riesgo adicional a menos de que sean adecuadamente compensados con un rendimiento superior.

Distribuciones de Probabilidad

Inversión Libre de Riesgo
1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00

-5%
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