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Gold A Unique Commodity Essay

1981 words - 8 pages

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Ensayo 2: Los precios de oro:
¿Porque están desafiando la gravedad?
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Los mercados mundiales parecen estar en una fiebre del oro ahora mismo. Excluyendo unas correcciones a corto plazo, los precios de oro han seguido subiendo de una manera ininterrumpida desde el principio de la década. Desde 265 dólares por onza en 2001, el oro se elevó durante la década, alcanzando 1900 dólares por nivel de onza en septiembre de 2011. El precio de la transacción "spot" de oro ya se ha levantado más del 25 por ciento este año con un pico de 1923.70 dólares por onza el 6 de ...view middle of the document...

Tiene poco empleo en la industria y así se mueve más o menos independientemente de los ciclos de negocio. A diferencia de materias primas agrícolas, el oro no es propenso a interrupciones de suministro relacionadas con el tiempo tampoco. De hecho, la maleabilidad y la longevidad del metal amarillo aseguran que el suministro nunca se cae. Sólo es difundido de nuevo o complementado por la minería adicional. El oro sobre todo es favorecido para sus propiedades de almacenaje, su longevidad prestándolo un estado casi equivalente a un activo financiero.

La única diferencia es que el metal amarillo no tiene ningún rendimiento; esto no produce un flujo de caja regular y de ahí, es difícil poner un precio con exactitud. Esto lo hace una inversión menos interesante en comparación a acciones ordinarias y obligaciones. Sus únicas propiedades, sin embargo, lo hace una tienda de valor y así, un hedge útil frente la inflación y la depreciación monetaria. Los inversionistas dan vuelta al oro en los tiempos de inestabilidad financiera y política ya que esto no tiene ningún riesgo de default.
La inversión en el oro históricamente ha sido asociada con temor sobre la inflación creciente y durante los tiempos de confusión política. Un estudio reciente de Oxford Economics proporciona una perspectiva significativa sobre esta cuestión:
A largo plazo el oro tiende a sostener su valor en verdaderos términos, pero los factores de cíclicos pueden alejar el oro de su equilibrio de largo plazo durante períodos ampliados. Estos factores incluyen:
* la tensión financiera,
* la confusión política,
* tasas de interés,
* inflación,
* la actividad del banco central
* el tipo de cambio del dólar estadounidense.
Así, el oro interpreta un papel de tienda de seguro durante los periodos inflacionistas como deflacionistas, ofreciendo un hedge frente acontecimientos extremos como los actuales.

Los usos del oro
Oro como un activo monetario: A pesar del desmontaje del “gold standard” en 1971 y del sistema de “Bretton Woods” de tipos de cambio fijos, los bancos centrales a través del mundo han seguido usando las cantidades grandes de oro como un activo de reserva. Según el informe de agosto de 2011 del Consejo Mundial De oro, los bancos centrales sostuvieron casi el 16 por ciento del suministro mundial de oro. Desde bancos centrales, gobiernos, y organizaciones internacionales son los titulares individuales más grandes de oro hoy. Por eso, sus actividades tienen un impacto significativo sobre el precio de oro.
La década pasada ha visto un cambio estructural en la dinámica de la demanda y del suministro. En efecto, los países avanzados redujeron sus ventas mientras las economías emergentes aumentaron radicalmente sus reservas. De hecho, por primera vez desde 1988, los bancos centrales se hicieron los compradores netos de oro en 2010. El crecimiento del interés al oro ha causado un crecimiento importante en la demanda del metal, así haciendo subir los...

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