Q1. The case indicates that several different product categories may provide suitable analogs for the diffusion of hybrid cars.
a. Based on the case, explain why these product categories may provide as suitable analogs.
b. Go to the “Dataset for Finding p and q Parameters” excel file. Using “Bass Forecasting Model ► Estimate parameters using analogy” find the analog product from the window and select the appropriate designated cells where the data will be placed. The software will insert the p&q parameters into the designated empty cells. Save this excel file and paste the complete “Forecasting Scenario” output to your report.
A.) Based on the case, the four product ...view middle of the document...
I was able to find approximate numbers for 2011, 2012, and 2013 from: http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/10/usa-auto-industry-total-sales-figures.html
Q3. Compare the Bass model forecasts of hybrid car market based on past data with the forecasts based on the analog products. Which one would you rely your forecasts on?
I would rely my forecasts on the Bass model because it can forecast long term sales patterns. The Bass model enables one to predict how many customers will adopt the new product (hybrid car) and when they will adopt it. This is important because Mulally, CEO of Ford, wants to know if the “Way Forward plan” is realistic. The Bass model will allow him to see if building 250,000 hybrid cars by the year 2010 annually by 2010 is realistic or not.
Q4. In the completed “Ford Hybrid Car Sales Forecasts” sheet look at the “2016 Annual Sales of Hybrid (Forecast).” Depending on different forecast figures, what is a possible range for the total sales of hybrid cars in 2016? Try to give a range as specific as possible. What percent of the hybrid car market is Ford likely to target? Should Mulally go with the initial announcement of William Clay Ford as explained in the case? What would your suggestions be for the...