FEDERAL UNIVERSITY KASHERE
P.M.B 0182, GOMBE
FACULTY OF HUMANITIES, MANAGEMENT AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
COURSE CODE; 4303
COURSE TITLE; DEMOGRAPHY
Brief Explanation of Demographic Transition Theory
GROUP (5) MEMBERS
Course lecturer; PROF. UMAR BAPPAH
TABLE OF CONTENTS
2. Demographic transitional theory
3. ...view middle of the document...
In the 1940s and 1950s Frank W.Notestein developed a more formal theory of demographic transition. Although this theory predicts ever decreasing fertility rates, recent data show that beyond a certain level of development fertility rates increase again.
A correlation matching the demographic transition has been established; however, it is not certain whether industrialization and higher incomes lead to lower population or if lower populations lead to industrialization and higher incomes. In countries that are now developed this demographic transition began in the 18th century and continues today. In less developed countries, this demographic transition started later and is still at an earlier stage.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY
Demographers have generally examined trends in the population with the attendant postulation of demographic transition theory. According to Isuigo-Abanihe (2009), in the works of Thompson (2003) and Notesein (1945), a distinct explanation of these phenomenal changes, as well as the large changes among world regions, stemmed from the demographic transition theory, which was built on the experience of currently developed societies, and suggests that societies pass through five stages in the process of change. The five transition stages are explained as follows:
In pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates were both high, and fluctuated rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population. Family planning and contraception were virtually nonexistent; therefore, birth rates were essentially only limited by the ability of women to bear children. Emigration depressed death rates in some special cases (for example, Europe and particularly the Eastern United States during the 19th century), but, overall, death rates tended to match birth rates, often exceeding 40 per 1000 per year. Children contributed to the economy of the household from an early age by carrying water, firewood, and messages, caring for younger siblings, sweeping, washing dishes, preparing food, and working in the fields. Raising a child cost little more than feeding him or her; there were no education or entertainment expenses. Thus, the total cost of raising children barely exceeded their contribution to the household. In addition, as they became adults they become a major input to the family business, mainly farming, and were the primary form of insurance for adults in old age. In India, an adult son was all that prevented a widow from falling into destitution. While death rates remained high there was no question as to the need for children, even if the means to prevent them had existed.
During this stage, the society evolves in accordance with Malthusian paradigm, with population essentially determined by the food supply. Any fluctuations in food supply (either positive, for example, due to technology improvements, or negative, due to droughts and pest invasions)...