Computer Essay

2082 words - 9 pages

Section 7: Conclusion

Section

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

7

Conclusion
Given the importance of China today, there can

Wild cards are low probability events which

be no doubt that the determination of Chinese

would have a significant impact if they were to

leadership to maintain the course of reform will

occur. In the case of China they could include :

be a decisive factor in the global future. It is

A possible Taiwan conflict :

equally true that the support of other global

How would China react if Taiwan were to

players and their preparedness to welcome

declare independence ? For many years

China in its gradual rise in greatness will have a

independence was not ...view middle of the document...

In so doing, they can help the reader

most active seismic regions of the world

better understand what could happen and how

and has in the last 30 years been shaken

single headlines in the media may reflect

by numerous earthquakes killing at least

more fundamental changes.

750,000 people. There will no doubt be
earthquakes in China in the next twenty
years but the likelihood of one that disrupts
Beijing’s ability to function is low. If a severe
earthquake were to lead to a temporary
power vacuum, or the ensuing damage
were not properly cleared up, it could be a
source of major instability.

66

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

Having read the scenarios, it is possible to

Others could include :

ask after each one : “If this world were to come

Health crises and epidemics,

about, what would it mean for me?” By living the

aggravated by the breakdown of the rural

future in advance, it is possible for governments,

health system;

businesses and non-governmental organizations

Financial crises and bank failures,

to build robust strategies and policies that would

aggravated by insufficient transparency and

work in all scenarios. Indeed, it is even possible

political pressures on those lending money ;

to develop an early warning system on the basis

Mass social unrest where largely

of the scenarios to give advance notice if a trend

separate demonstrations meld into a single

becomes perceptible, thus gaining a competitive

mass protest.

Section 7: Conclusion

These are just two of many possible wild cards.

edge.

It is our hope that the scenarios will stimulate
Each of these could have a major impact if they

an engaged discussion. Making explicit a number

occurred, at least opening new possible futures

of issues may in itself cause change for good.

or ruling out others.

67

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Annex: Recommended Reading

Annex : Recommended Reading
Barton, D. 2004. Facing China. The McKinsey
Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.

International Energy Agency. 2004. World Energy
Outlook 2004. France.

Bekier, Matthias M., Richard Huang, and
Gregory P. Wilson. 2005. How to fix China’s
banking system. The McKinsey Quarterly 2005.
Number 1.

Ministry of Health Report on China's Healthcare
System and Reform. 2005. (Executive Summary,
unofficial translation). August.

Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane
Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic
Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia.
ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian
Development Bank. November.
Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The
Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse.
Singapore : John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005.
University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages
in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing
Technological Innovation. To be presented at
“Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies
in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and
Social Research Council. 24-25 May....

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