Use scenario planning techniques to consider the various environmental influences which may affect the global pharmaceutical industry in the future?
Key drivers for change:
Scientific advances leading to new drug discovery processes and greatertargeting of treatments.
Continued mergers and acquisitions leading to more rapid concentration in theindustry or vertical integration.
Transformation of traditional distribution or business models (including greateruse of the Internet for DTC marketing).
Threat to intellectual property resulting from a combination of genericcompetition and the HIV/AIDS crisis in Africa.
More informed consumers.Opposing key drivers:
The pharmaceutical industry facing a rapidly changing environment, whichoffers both opportunities (such as harmonisation of regulatory ...view middle of the document...
Big positive change (i) No change (II) Big negative change (III)
1. Improved diagnosis andmore efficient clinicaltesting.Time to market remainskey dimension.Patent protection shrinksas clinical trials becomeever more cumbersomeand costly.2. Genomics provides cost-effective ways to detectdisease and develop newdrugs.Emerging markets remainthe main areas forantibiotics and generics.R&D priorities radicallychange.3. Enhanced R&D andmarketing capabilitiespay off by bringing moreblockbuster drugs fasterto market.Mergers and acquisitionactivity stops and/or poorperformance of verticalintegration.Big pharmaceuticalsbecome a holdingcompany of drugdiscovery outfits.4. Internal biotechs becomethe solution toorganizational problems.New marketing channel. Emergence of virtualcompanies.5. Harmonization ofapproval processeswithin the EU (i.e. singlesubmission) and betweenthe EU and the US.Intellectual property rightsare retained andstrengthened across theworld, with exceptionsbeing made only in casesof true emergency suchas AIDS.The world`s mostpopulous developingmarkets are opened up tocheap copy productsfrom countries such asIndia, and effectively lostas markets for majorpharms.6. More and better qualityinformation creates betterinformed and educatedconsumers. Medicalpractitioners welcomeand support theDirect to consumercommunication continuesto be outlawed in mostcountries outside the USand informed consumerscontinue to use theAngry consumers forcegovernments to permitdirect to consumer (DTC)communication so that
they are not „kept in thedark‟ about new drug
empowering of finalconsumers.Internet. developments. DTC isthen politicized in electioncampaigns.(Pearson Education Limited